blog

Oct 22, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Independence Sentiment Is Rising In Europe

Independence Sentiment Is Rising In Europe

Two years ago Britons expressed their will to exit the EU. Today, it's Catalonia, Poland and the Czech Republic. Spanish province of Catalonia held independence referendum last month. Despite the police brutality against the referendum supporters, 90% of those who voted supported independence, according to unofficial figures. Mariano Rajoy's government

Read More
Oct 06, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Economic Optimism – But Not Much Else

Economic Optimism – But Not Much Else

Consumer and business sentiment surged since the election, and remained high this year: High confidence is typically followed by high economic activity. Oddly, this has not occurred. The bankers who advise the Federal Reserve board of governors were puzzled earlier in September by a slowing credit demand despite high levels

Read More
Sep 11, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on More Upside For Stocks

More Upside For Stocks

Our domestic politics weighed on investor confidence last month. It looked as though politicians would use the debt ceiling as leverage in their fight over the budget, which would lead to a government shutdown. Investors were also concerned that North Korea’s aggressive show of force might trigger a U.S. military

Read More
May 16, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on What Volatility Drain Means To The Market

What Volatility Drain Means To The Market

After a rebound in the second half of April, U.S. equities (+8% year to date) stabilized, while global markets excluding the U.S. continued to push higher, driven by a relief rally in European markets after the French election on May 7th. When the stock market rises, its volatility tends to

Read More
May 02, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Earnings Growth Drives Market Upside

Earnings Growth Drives Market Upside

Double-digit earnings growth is fastest since 2011 The Q1-2017 earnings reporting season is well underway. While equity market valuation remains high, profit growth momentum is gathering pace. Blended Q1 earnings growth (actual and estimated) currently stands at 12.5% according to Factset. This is the highest year-over-year earnings growth for the index since

Read More
Apr 05, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Reality Check For The Market?

Reality Check For The Market?

The surge in optimism since November has been remarkable, as I wrote in recent reports. Consumer sentiment measures remain near their highest in 15 years (see chart), and small business confidence is near a 12-year high. But consumer spending has not yet experienced sustained growth. While manufacturing and durable goods

Read More
Mar 23, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on TIPS and Tactical Investing

TIPS and Tactical Investing

I begin with an overview of tactical investing applied to fixed income. TIPS recommendation is reiterated. The available TIPS products are compared. In last week's article, I wrote that Treasury inflation-protected securities became attractive. Our model made this recommendation based on the level of 10-year real yield (60 basis points

Read More
Mar 14, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The Recipe For Rising Rates: TIPS

The Recipe For Rising Rates: TIPS

It's been tough market for bond investors since the last week of February. The odds of the Fed's rate hike on March 15th jumped from 35% to nearly 100% in three weeks. Longer-term rates also jumped, and bond prices, which are inverse to yields, fell. The Fed officials are compelled

Read More
Mar 03, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The Fed Is Back In Play

The Fed Is Back In Play

Treasury yields jumped and bonds fell this week as investors bet that a Fed interest rate hike would come this month. New York Fed President William Dudley – one of the most influential U.S. central bankers, and usually considered a dove – said late Tuesday that the case for tightening

Read More
Feb 10, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on How will Trump’s Economy Look?

How will Trump’s Economy Look?

There is this to be said about the Many. Each of them by himself may not be of [much] quality; but when they all come together it is possible they may surpass the quality of the few best. ~ Aristotle, Politics (around 340 BC) via Arthur Herman, The Cave and

Read More
Google+