Our PAR Model’s short term S&P 500 forecast has been extremely accurate so far this year. We just issued the August report with a significant change in the expected return – request a free trial of the report here for more details.

Forecasting Record

In this post, we highlight the performance of our real-time reporting of the PAR Model™ results to clients. NOTE: All figures are based on model portfolio performance, not actual investments. 

The model’s forecasts at the end of each month of this year, as reported in real time every month, are shown in the exhibit below. Due to the short time period, the 6-month return forecast is treated simply as a Buy or Sell signal, and 1-month actual return for the S&P 500 is shown for comparison.

In the seven months of 2012, the 20% Fixed-Bands and Variable-Bands strategies both outperformed the buy-and-hold S&P 500 by about 1.6%, while the performance of No-Leverage strategy was flat.

Request a free trial of the report for full details.