economy

Aug 18, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Dangerously Overconfident

Dangerously Overconfident

It’s one of the most expensive markets of all time, while the economy is one of the worst ever. The market prices-in a quick, V-shaped recovery with certainty, forgetting about risk.

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Mar 16, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on This Is a Bear Market

This Is a Bear Market

Roman Chuyan, CFA March 15, 2020 Our fundamentals-based process has helped protect against the entire downturn so far. Stocks are cheaper, but economic factors are now negative, and so is our outlook for the S&P 500. I describe developing themes (earnings, economic) that might continue to pressure markets. All major

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Feb 15, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The Pin that Pricks the Bubble?

The Pin that Pricks the Bubble?

Roman Chuyan, CFA February 14, 2020 Our equity model’s outlook for the S&P 500 remains negative, we maintain defensive positioning. I explain why we think that investors are underestimating the damaging effects of the epidemic. Corporate earnings continued to stall in Q4-2019. Stocks rebounded strongly in February from their earlier

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Dec 16, 2019 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Welcome To the 2020’s

Welcome To the 2020’s

Roman Chuyan, CFA December 15, 2019 Our equity model’s 6m forecast for the S&P 500 remains negative on high market valuation. According to the negative forecast, we continue with defensive portfolio positioning. In this year-end report, I’d like to provide a broader perspective. This is the end not only of

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Sep 18, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Potential Market Catalysts

Potential Market Catalysts

  In this post, I review potential positive catalysts that might push stocks higher in the coming weeks. U.S. Markets, Year-To-Date Sources: Quotemedia, Ycharts. Figures as of 9/14/18 market close. The S&P 500 index consolidated in September around its all-time high after gaining over 3% in both July and August, and

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