The Pin for Stock Market Bubble Roman Chuyan, CFA Video credit: iStock by Getty Last week’s inflation numbers were staggeringly high, which now affects consumer confidence. High inflation will likely be followed by rising interest rates. I speculate once again why I think this will prove to be the proverbial
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investing
Nov 09, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Like A Rocket Ship!
Like A Rocket Ship!
Why we got back in the market Roman Chuyan, CFA 11/9/2020 Note: this report was sent to our clients on 11/2/2020. Stocks took off like a rocket ship since then. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Our Equity Model’s outlook for the S&P 500 changed from Neutral to Positive. Our Short-Term Risk model gave a
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Oct 09, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on It Might Get Interesting (Pre-Election)
It Might Get Interesting (Pre-Election)
Market volatility increased in September and might continue into the election. Our equity model’s 6m forecast for the S&P 500 has improved but remains negative. Our short-term risk model continues to give a Sell signal. Both models dictate defensive positioning. Stock market volatility returned in September over concerns about the
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Apr 17, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The “Immense” Recession?
The “Immense” Recession?
Roman Chuyan, CFA April 15, 2020 In four weeks, 13.4% of the entire US labor force filed for unemployment. A 10% cumulative peak-to-trough GDP contraction is expected this year. If that comes to pass, it would be 2.5 times the size of the 2008-09 economic downturn when US GDP contracted
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Nov 06, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Stock Rebound Is In Order
Stock Rebound Is In Order
I describe some investor fears that triggered the stock market correction and more importantly, why a rebound is in order. Valuation for the S&P 500 has improved, and earnings growth is exceptionally strong, +25% YoY. U.S. economic strength continues – but Europe is slowing rapidly which might be a
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Oct 20, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Run Away From Global Stocks
Run Away From Global Stocks
Global stocks took a dive this year. While the U.S. market is doing Ok, up 5% year-to-date, global equities (the MSCI ACWI ex-US index) plunged 9% this year, and emerging markets crashed 15%: The reason for this global selloff is economic decoupling – deteriorating economies in many parts of the
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Sep 18, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Potential Market Catalysts
Potential Market Catalysts
In this post, I review potential positive catalysts that might push stocks higher in the coming weeks. U.S. Markets, Year-To-Date Sources: Quotemedia, Ycharts. Figures as of 9/14/18 market close. The S&P 500 index consolidated in September around its all-time high after gaining over 3% in both July and August, and
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Jan 01, 2015 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Learn About Investing
Learn About Investing
Investment Basics is a project aimed to help people learn about investing. If you have some savings sitting in a bank account earning no interest, you may be thinking: “that’s not right, my money should earn something!” You may know about the stock market, but you would like to learn how investing
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