stocks

Aug 18, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Dangerously Overconfident

Dangerously Overconfident

It’s one of the most expensive markets of all time, while the economy is one of the worst ever. The market prices-in a quick, V-shaped recovery with certainty, forgetting about risk.

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Apr 17, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The “Immense” Recession?

The “Immense” Recession?

Roman Chuyan, CFA April 15, 2020 In four weeks, 13.4% of the entire US labor force filed for unemployment. A 10% cumulative peak-to-trough GDP contraction is expected this year. If that comes to pass, it would be 2.5 times the size of the 2008-09 economic downturn when US GDP contracted

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Mar 16, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on This Is a Bear Market

This Is a Bear Market

Roman Chuyan, CFA March 15, 2020 Our fundamentals-based process has helped protect against the entire downturn so far. Stocks are cheaper, but economic factors are now negative, and so is our outlook for the S&P 500. I describe developing themes (earnings, economic) that might continue to pressure markets. All major

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Mar 06, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on How We Protect Against This Downturn

How We Protect Against This Downturn

Roman Chuyan, CFA February 29, 2020 Our fundamentals-based process helped protect against the entire market correction so far. Our equity model’s outlook for the S&P 500 remains negative; we maintain defensive positioning. The correction made stocks somewhat cheaper, but valuation remains negative. What a difference a week makes! Stock markets

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Feb 15, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The Pin that Pricks the Bubble?

The Pin that Pricks the Bubble?

Roman Chuyan, CFA February 14, 2020 Our equity model’s outlook for the S&P 500 remains negative, we maintain defensive positioning. I explain why we think that investors are underestimating the damaging effects of the epidemic. Corporate earnings continued to stall in Q4-2019. Stocks rebounded strongly in February from their earlier

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Dec 16, 2019 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Welcome To the 2020’s

Welcome To the 2020’s

Roman Chuyan, CFA December 15, 2019 Our equity model’s 6m forecast for the S&P 500 remains negative on high market valuation. According to the negative forecast, we continue with defensive portfolio positioning. In this year-end report, I’d like to provide a broader perspective. This is the end not only of

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Nov 06, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Stock Rebound Is In Order

Stock Rebound Is In Order

  I describe some investor fears that triggered the stock market correction and more importantly, why a rebound is in order. Valuation for the S&P 500 has improved, and earnings growth is exceptionally strong, +25% YoY. U.S. economic strength continues – but Europe is slowing rapidly which might be a

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Oct 20, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Run Away From Global Stocks

Run Away From Global Stocks

  Global stocks took a dive this year. While the U.S. market is doing Ok, up 5% year-to-date, global equities (the MSCI ACWI ex-US index) plunged 9% this year, and emerging markets crashed 15%: The reason for this global selloff is economic decoupling – deteriorating economies in many parts of the

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Sep 18, 2018 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Potential Market Catalysts

Potential Market Catalysts

  In this post, I review potential positive catalysts that might push stocks higher in the coming weeks. U.S. Markets, Year-To-Date Sources: Quotemedia, Ycharts. Figures as of 9/14/18 market close. The S&P 500 index consolidated in September around its all-time high after gaining over 3% in both July and August, and

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Sep 11, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on More Upside For Stocks

More Upside For Stocks

Our domestic politics weighed on investor confidence last month. It looked as though politicians would use the debt ceiling as leverage in their fight over the budget, which would lead to a government shutdown. Investors were also concerned that North Korea’s aggressive show of force might trigger a U.S. military

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