tactical investing

Oct 09, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

It Might Get Interesting (Pre-Election)

Market volatility increased in September and might continue into the election. Our equity model’s 6m forecast for the S&P 500 has improved but remains negative. Our short-term risk model continues to give a Sell signal. Both models dictate defensive positioning. Stock market volatility returned in September over concerns about the

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Aug 18, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

Dangerously Overconfident

It’s one of the most expensive markets of all time, while the economy is one of the worst ever. The market prices-in a quick, V-shaped recovery with certainty, forgetting about risk.

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Apr 17, 2020 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

The “Immense” Recession?

Roman Chuyan, CFA April 15, 2020 In four weeks, 13.4% of the entire US labor force filed for unemployment. A 10% cumulative peak-to-trough GDP contraction is expected this year. If that comes to pass, it would be 2.5 times the size of the 2008-09 economic downturn when US GDP contracted

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Mar 23, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

TIPS and Tactical Investing

I begin with an overview of tactical investing applied to fixed income. TIPS recommendation is reiterated. The available TIPS products are compared. In last week’s article, I wrote that Treasury inflation-protected securities became attractive. Our model made this recommendation based on the level of 10-year real yield (60 basis points

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Mar 14, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

The Recipe For Rising Rates: TIPS

It’s been tough market for bond investors since the last week of February. The odds of the Fed’s rate hike on March 15th jumped from 35% to nearly 100% in three weeks. Longer-term rates also jumped, and bond prices, which are inverse to yields, fell. The Fed officials are compelled

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Mar 03, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

The Fed Is Back In Play

Treasury yields jumped and bonds fell this week as investors bet that a Fed interest rate hike would come this month. New York Fed President William Dudley – one of the most influential U.S. central bankers, and usually considered a dove – said late Tuesday that the case for tightening

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Feb 10, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

How will Trump’s Economy Look?

There is this to be said about the Many. Each of them by himself may not be of [much] quality; but when they all come together it is possible they may surpass the quality of the few best. ~ Aristotle, Politics (around 340 BC) via Arthur Herman, The Cave and

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Jan 04, 2017 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

2017: Optimistic For Stocks, But Not Bonds

I provide a summary of our market outlook to mid-2017. Post-election surge in consumer sentiment brightens 2017 economic outlook. I give updated recommendations for our tactical fixed-income portfolio. In my first 2017 post, I wanted to provide a summary of our market outlook to June of 2017. Mid-year is chosen

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Dec 21, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

Economic Effect Of Higher Rates

Auto and home sales have not been affected by higher interest rates. The president-elect’s policies boosted rates, but also brought about remarkable surge in optimism. If perception becomes reality, higher growth may offset the impact of higher interest rates. I reiterate my short-duration recommendations to active bond investors, and share

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Dec 11, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off

TIPS Are Not On The Menu – Just Yet

Inflation may continue to rise in the coming months. TIPS protect against inflation, but come with their unique risks, including rising interest rates. The time to invest in TIPS is not yet, but we are close. In this post, I’ll describe Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. These inflation-indexed bonds offer

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